The Changing Mobile Data Landscape, Part 1

In August 2009, the Admob Metrics report for the U.S. Admob ad impressions showed a little feature phone moving to third place after months at fourth place. Yes yes, the iPhone and iPod Touch are numbers 1 and 2. But that's not important here.

The Samsung R450. To be more precise, the Samsung SCH-R450 for Metro PCS. Not an Android device, not a Pre, not a Blackberry. A messaging-focused feature phone with a poor camera, released in 2008. And not AT&T, not Sprint, not Verizon. Instead, Metro PCS, who says "everything we do is unlimited." Smartphone users are getting unlimited voice, text, and data for $50/month. Feature phone users max out at $45. With no contract.

This price is within the range of "normobs," or normal mobile users, especially when considered as a replacement for a wireline home phone.

And guess what? They are using the mobile web. In great numbers.

Look around, kids are surfing on anything
with a connection and a browser.

Some folks are holding onto their Motorla RAZR. Yes, in 2009, the RAZR is still in the top 20 handsets hitting Admob-measured sites. Actually, it's number 6. Our UK readers may be aghast, but go look at your numbers. Three Nokia devices in the top 20? And none of an E-Series? And Apple taking over 50% of Admob traffic? (I keep mentioning Admob because they are measuring a non-random subset of mobile web data.)

And while you're at it, check out the increasing share of... Sony PlayStation Portable.

Design for more than smart phones

Okay, smart phones are great. iPhones are great. We like them. We use them. But they are not the only devices out there. Design for all the devices important to you. And by "important to you" I mean important to your customers.

"Wagging the dog"

Industry pundits have talked about how the iPhone is the tail wagging the mobile industry dog. That may be true, but let's look at user behavior instead.

I've spent time in the past few months helping my parents and a similarly-aged friend decide what device to get next. They are all very interested in smart phones, especially once I showed them applications. After all, applications let them do what they want to do, not what the mobile phone manufacturer thinks 80% of people want to do. And their needs aren't outrageous, either.

So we have increased interest in mobile web and mobile applications from folks who do not want the latest gadget. And they don't necessarily know that they need a specific brand or operating system to do it. If a device delivers a good web experience, and perhaps some downloaded apps, that may be all they need. Yup, I'm talking web and Java here, folks.

Feature phones can do it

Why won't they get smart phones?

Because they have to pay more per month, every month. $20 extra each month for Verizon, as of two minutes ago. That's $480 extra plus tax over the course of the contract, and the phone most likely costs more, too.

So my father would have to pay more for the smart phone, then pay more for the data for the smart phone. He's a smart man and is budget conscious. Why would he do this? He'll avoid it if he can. He doesn't need or want to download music or videos. Why pay extra for this?

And feature phones will serve most of his needs, especially once he discovers GetJar.

I believe that feature phones are going to be far more important in mobile data in the next few years, driven by these varying price points the operators are maintaining combined with the capabilities perceived to be part of smart phones only.

And guess what? If customers make this choice now, many feature phones have better browsers than Blackberry and Windows Mobile. So which is the better choice? As better BB and IE browsers deploy, this will be less true. But stay tuned.

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“And guess what? If customers make this choice now, many feature phones have better browsers than Blackberry and Windows Mobile. So which is the better choice? As better BB and IE browsers deploy, this will be less true. But stay tuned.”

FYI, windows mobile has many different browsers. Skyfire and Opera mobile 10 are both in many people’s opinions better than the iphone’s Safari, and both are free.